Thursday, September 3, 2009

World buying Gold like crazy! death of the dollar begin

Reports suggest that China's main sovereign wealth fund and other state entities are under pressure to invest in strategic Western assets as the country tries to offload its dollars for firmer-based wealth including gold and oil.

Several reports are coming out of China that there is pressure on state-controlled organisations - notably the country's main sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corporation (CIC) to rapidly build investment in non-Chinese enterprises. While the CIC itself, with apparent access to some $300 billion in funds - and the possibility of more from the government - may be concentrating on hedge funds and other investment entities, there is another sector for Chinese state-owned companies looking at major investment in commodities. Indeed with the funds available as China seems to be dumping its US dollars in favour of more concrete assets, virtually no minerals sector is safe from Chinese participation.

While CIC was set up only two years ago, funded with $200 billion in initial capital, a report to the U.S. Congress noted that according to top Chinese officials, it was created to improve the rate of return on China's $1.5 trillion in foreign exchange reserves and to soak up some of the nation's excess financial liquidity. Depending on its performance with the initial allotment of $200 billion, the CIC might be allocated more of China's growing stock of foreign exchange reserves - and this has already proved to be the case.

Probably the most interesting of the recent reports of what is happening with Chinese sovereign wealth fund investment outside China has come from Paul Mylchreest's Thunder Road Report where an ex-U.S. intelligence service member is quoted. He reports that he has a friend who is in the Chinese Sovereign Wealth fund sector who says - hearsay I know and it wouldn't stand up in court - indicated that the wealth fund analysts were working all hours of the day and night trying to put investment deals together - particularly in the oil and precious metals sectors. The conclusion is that China recognises that the U.S. dollar is going to tank and it wants to convert as much of its trillions of dollars of holdings into strategic assets as possible before the collapse really takes hold.
The trouble is there is too much money available chasing too few assets - and too little time available - or such is the conclusion. As a result the Chinese government seems to be doing its utmost in trying to persuade the Chinese public to buy gold and silver by relaxing the restrictions - it's now easier to buy precious metals in China than in the U.S. - and by pushing gold and silver investment on state-owned television. If this continues the likelihood is that China will permanently overtake India as the world's biggest buyer of gold and silver, while the country's store of wealth will help shield it against further western economic collapse.
If this is indeed the case then it must be likely that the country is also building its own gold reserves - perhaps surreptitiously - through creative accounting by buying by a state entity, but not through the Central Bank itself where such sales would need to be reported. Positive for gold looking forward.
Returning to the Sovereign Wealth Funds angle though, CIC's chairman, Lou Jiwei, is reported by the WSJ as saying that investment in CIC's global portfolio for "one month this year equalled that of the whole of last year" and that given that the fund is expecting a positive return on its investments this year it may well ask the government for additional funding. Where it is going to place additional funding, who knows but there seems little doubt that China is using the western recession to buy up assets on the cheap and the funds available to do this are virtually unlimited by Western standards. But the Chinese won't buy up any old rubbish. They'll be looking for the crème de la crème.
Already CIC has bought 17% of Canada's last real remaining diversified miner - Teck Corporation - smartly buying when the latter was only just beginning to recover from last year's collapse and it has to be likely that more minerals-strategic investments are on the cards or being negotiated, either by CIC or other state organisations. Chinalco's ultimately thwarted move into Rio Tinto would have been another such instance and the Chinese investments and takeovers of Australian miners and promises of huge funding for minerals rich African countries are other examples.
Some reckon that China will be the world's second biggest economy, overtaking Japan, within the next couple of years and will overtake the U.S. by 2030. If it continues the way it is going and the U.S. continues the way it is going, this could happen much sooner. Communism, Chinese style, is winning the war of economic dominance and soon the world will no longer rely on the dollar as its reserve currency, but the renminbi!
In an interesting, but perhaps disturbing footnote to the Thunder Road Report mentioned above, Paul Mylchreest comments that in Latin America, where he has been living for 25 years, for the first time he can remember, locals are now preferring their own currency to U.S. dollars. He goes on to finish with this comment: "If a fellow with no education, a poor diet, and inadequate medical treatment living at 3,500 metres above sea level can figure out that the US dollar is undesirable as a store of wealth, how much longer do you think it can last as the world's reserve currency."
Your point to ponder for the day!

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Congratulation - World just got New Currency!



At First here is the link to convert your currency to new SDR

YET ANOTHER BIG MOMENT IN HISTORY. THE SDR(Special Drawing Rights at the IMF or International Monetary Fund) is being made convertable into other currencies and the IMF beefing up their ability to service this type of request. If the article is even close to being right, the IMF is looking to increase their ability to leverage by a factor of 15 or more.. Going from gold reserves of 33bln to 283bln is HUGE and should be shouted from the rooftops if true..

In a new article on kitco, analyst Paul Nathan cites a report in Bloomberg that the IMF and representatives from China, Russia and Brazil voted to make the SDR (special drawing right) convertable to any currency. The first reserve of SDR's was created out of nothing at that vote, and is now availble to act as a neutral medium to move international currencies through. Anyone with a large horde of cash can now move it around the world at will, as long as the IMF give the say so. As I see it, this act cocks the gun for a bullet of massive, nation destroying inflation. Here's what Nathan says...

Late on a Friday in August, when most people around the world were not looking, the international monetary system, in an unprecedented move, evolved. We were notified by the IMF of the following:

Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund said it today pumped about $250 billion into foreign-exchange reserves worldwide, acting on an April call from leaders of the Group of 20 nations to boost global liquidity.

Countries will be able to convert the money, to come from so-called Special Drawing Rights, into hard currencies through “voluntary trading arrangements” with other members, the IMF said on its Web site today. The SDRs are the institution’s unit of account based on a basket of currencies.

The allocation, approved by the IMF’s board of governors earlier this month, will not increase the fund’s pool of money available for lending, the IMF said. “It will, however, provide members with an additional method to obtain hard currencies.”

Another smaller reserves allocation of about $33 billion will take place Sept. 9 and will be limited to members that joined the lender after 1981, such as countries from the former Soviet bloc, the IMF said.

About $110 billion of the total allocation will go to emerging-market and developing countries and $20 billion to low- income nations.

“A number of members with sufficiently strong external positions” have already said they are ready to set up or expand existing arrangements enabling the sale or purchase of SDR's, the IMF said. The lender typically acts as a broker and arranges transactions between parties at no cost. (End News Release)

What this means is that for the first time in history we have a world central bank capable of creating money out of thin air. No longer does the IMF need to borrow money with a vote of all members plus the consent of the US congress. It can simply create whatever amount of money it needs through the creation of SDRs. Not for itself, mind you, but for the world. The SDR has been around since 1967, but never as a convertible asset. That changed Friday, August 28th, 2009. The SDR has quietly mutated.

The decision was made August 7th, in an IMF vote. According to the IMF "global reserves will increase from just USD33bn to USD283bn or about 4% of global reserves excluding gold. In addition, the IMF will start issuing SDR notes later this year (China, Brazil and Russia will be the main buyers). These SDR notes can be counted as part of currency reserves and hence SDR assets could reach 5% of total reserve assets later in 2009 and possibly surpass GBP, JPY and CHF in importance as reserve assets." This is a foot in the door.

The prospect of this happening was covered in my article, The Making Of An International Monetary Crisis:

"The spectacle of billions of inconvertible dollars frozen in the vaults of central banks has brought on cries of condemnation over the dollar’s credibility as a reserve currency. The Policy Maker’s theory of a stable yet artificially ever-expanding reserve currency has failed.
The "solution" to the problem (if the Policy Maker remains consistent) will be to evolve the international monetary system from a system in which an ever-expanding reserve currency provided the world with credit and liquidity, to a system in which an ever-expanding reserve "asset" will fill that role. Like the dollar, this reserve "asset" will amount to circulating debt, i.e. something owed rather than something owned. It will be a non-market instrument, deriving its acceptability from government cooperation and decree, "immune from the laws of the free market and outside the reach of greedy speculators."

Where will this "asset" come from? Under the Bretton Woods system, dollar reserves were furnished by the U.S. central bank. Both the bank and the "asset" failed to provide sufficient stability. The next step is to create a world bank (a larger bank of last resort) controlled by an international organization (the IMF) with the power to create a new "asset," independent of any single government’s monetary policy.

As a supplement to gold and like the dollar before it, this "asset" should be a credit instrument. Unlike the dollar, it would have the backing of an entire world of central banks. The "asset" should be ever-expanding and should provide both liquidity and stability." That asset is the SDR and the potential became a reality this weekend. (For a further discussion of creating international reserves and the SDR, see my articles The Making Of An International Monetary Crisis and Bretton Woods 1944-1971, under "Other articles" by Paul Nathan).

As of this weekend, the world is 250 billion dollars "richer". No products were produced. No taxes were raised. Not even one cent was borrowed. The IMF simply created a bookkeeping entry on behalf of those countries it felt worthy of receiving additional reserves. The reserves, SDRs, are a claim to "hard currency". The hard currency will be provided by those with "sufficiently strong external positions”, in other words, surplus nations.

There is no reason for surplus nations to part with hard currency, save two, that I can think of: Altruism or Power. And in my opinion they are having a go at the latter. My read on this is that the surplus nations have just made an end run around the United States and the US Congress who have veto power over IMF decisions. Surplus nations can now provide “voluntary trading arrangements” with non-surplus (importing) nations with the IMF as "broker". This sounds like a mechanism for the surplus nations to provide buying power to importing nations at the expense of us all.

The ability to inflate has now been augmented. It has transcended national boundaries from national central banks to a world central bank. This "new" bank now has the power to create money. Inflation is no longer limited to one currency but will affect all paper currencies in the world. We now have the prospect of a synchronized international inflation. It's not enough that citizens throughout the world had to keep a keen eye on their nations central bank, now we all need to keep an eye on the IMF.

The "IMF's Board Of Governors", a group never elected to office, unknown to most, and accountable to no one, has now gained the power to create new claims on production without legal limits or oversight from any regulatory body. All it need do is vote for more SDRs.

Given the "announcement in the dead of night" tactics just employed, I suggest we all sharpen our eyesight. This development doesn't change the inflation outlook for the next month or even for the next year. But make no mistake -- the "powers that be" just took the fiat system and the inflation threat to a new level.

CNBC September Calling - Get ready for a bumpy ride

The US recovery could be bumpy, but haven't we passed the point where credit markets threaten to completely freeze-up? Art Cashin of UBS trading appears to believe the worst is behind us.



"Now we've gotten back to basically pre-Lehman levels. The Lehman scare is out of the market."



So we're back to pre-Lehman, but markets are still below pre-Lehman. More ammo for those who believe stocks are too cheap relative to where we are today.